The New Texan
Central Texas EditionThursday, May 21, 2026

Smart Money

Texas race odds

What the prediction markets are pricing for the 2026 Texas Senate, the GOP primary, and the likely November matchup. Source: Polymarket, the deepest pool of liquidity on these races. Updated every 30 minutes.

Texas Senate 2026

$237K vol

First competitive statewide Senate race in a generation. Markets say toss-up.

55%Republican
Democrat45%

GOP Senate Primary

$16.7M vol

Paxton has run away with it. Cornyn's incumbent advantage evaporated in weeks.

  • Beth Van Duyne
    <1%
  • Ken Paxton
    95%
  • John Cornyn
    6%
  • Wesley Hunt
    <1%

Methodology

Prices shown are implied probabilities from binary contracts traded on Polymarket. A 67% reading means the market is pricing a 67% chance the event happens.

We treat these prices as a journalistic data source, the same way Bloomberg and Reuters do. We display them; we do not link out to trade. Polymarket is geo-blocked for US users regardless.

We chose Polymarket over Kalshi because every Texas-specific Kalshi market we checked has zero volume and zero open interest. The actual money on these races (over $16M on the GOP primary alone) is on Polymarket. We'll add Kalshi the day it gets liquid.

Last refreshed May 21, 2:06 AM CDT.

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